Alexander Hamilton’s Private Notes, September 1787

Part two of The Baltimore Informer‘s historical series on the U.S. Constitution’s foundation continues. Alexander Hamilton wrote these private notes in September 1787 right after the Constitutional Convention ended. This wasn’t a speech or an op-ed meant for the public. It’s a raw scouting report where he calculates the odds of the new government actually working. He identifies the specific groups who wanted the country to succeed and the “inconsiderable men” in power who wanted it to fail. Hamilton didn’t hold back–he predicted that without a strong foundation the whole thing would end in civil war or a return to British rule. These notes reveal a man watching the birth of a nation while counting the rats in the room.

Alexander Hamilton’s Conjectures About the New Constitution

September 1787

The new constitution has in favour of its success these circumstances–a very great weight of influence of the persons who framed it, particularly in the universal popularity of General Washington,–the good will of the commercial interest throughout the states which will give all its efforts to the establishment of a government capable of regulating protecting and extending the commerce of the Union–the good will of most men of property in the several states who wish a government of the union able to protect them against domestic violence and the depredations which the democratic spirit is apt to make on property; and who are besides anxious for the respectability of the nation–the hopes of the Creditors of the United States that a general government possessing the means of doing it will pay the debt of the Union. a strong belief in the people at large of the insufficiency of the present confederation to preserve the existence of the Union and of the necessity of the union to their safety and prosperity; of course a strong desire of a change and a predisposition to receive well the propositions of the Convention.

Against its success is to be put, the dissent of two or three important men in the Convention; who will think their characters pledged to defeat the plan–the influence of many inconsiderable men in possession of considerable offices under the state governments who will fear a diminution of their consequence power and emolument by the establishment of the general government and who can hope for nothing there–the influence of some considerable men in office possessed of talents and popularity who partly from the same motives and partly from a desire of playing a part in a convulsion for their own aggrandisement will oppose the quiet adoption of the new government–(some considerable men out of office, from motives of ambition may be disposed to act the same part)–add to these causes the disinclination of the people to taxes and of course to a strong government–the opposition of all men much in debt who will not wish to see a government established one object of which is to restrain this means of cheating Creditors–the democratical jealousy of the people which may be alarmed at the appearance of institutions that may seem calculated to place the power of the community in few hands and to raise a few individuals to stations of great preeminence–and the influence of some foreign powers who from different motives will not wish to see an energetic government established throughout the states.

In this view of the subject it is difficult to form any judgment whether the plan will be adopted or rejected. It must be essentially matter of conjecture. The present appearances and all other circumstances considered the probability seems to be on the side of its adoption.

But the causes operating against its adoption are powerful and there will be nothing astonishing in the Contrary–

If it do not finally obtain, it is probable the discussion of the question will beget such struggles animosities and heats in the community that this circumstance conspiring with the real necessity of an essential change in our present situation will produce civil war. Should this happen, whatever parties prevail it is probable governments very different from the present in their principles will be established–A dismemberment of the Union and monarchies in different portions of it may be expected. It may however happen that no civil war will take place; but several republican confederacies be established between different combinations of particular states.

A reunion with Great Britain, from universal disgust at a state of commotion, is not impossible, though not much to be feared. The most plausible shape of such a business would be the establishment of a son of the present monarch in the supreme government of this country with a family compact.

If the government is adopted, it is probable general Washington will be the President of the United States–This will ensure a wise choice of men to administer the government and a good administration. A good administration will conciliate the confidence and affection of the people and perhaps enable the government to acquire more consistency than the proposed constitution seems to promise for so great a Country—It may then triumph altogether over the state governments and reduce them to an entire subordination, dividing the large states into smaller districts. The organs of the general government may also acquire additional strength. If this should not be the case, in the course of a few years, it is probable that the contests about the boundaries of power between the particular governments and the general government and the momentum of the larger states in such contests will produce a dissolution of the Union. This after all seems to be the most likely result. But it is almost arrogance in so complicated a subject, depending so entirely on the incalculable fluctuations of the human passions, to attempt even a conjecture about the event. It will be Eight or Nine months before any certain judgment can be formed respecting the adoption of the Plan.

Modern English Translation

Here’s who wants this new Constitution to succeed: The men who wrote it. General George Washington. Business owners who want a government that can actually protect and expand trade. Property owners who want protection from domestic violence and mob rule. The creditors who want the government to finally pay off its debts. Most people simply recognize our current setup is completely broken and we need a massive change to survive.

Here’s who is fighting it: A few big names from the Convention who already promised to kill the plan. Low-level state politicians terrified of losing their influence and their paychecks to a new national government. Ambitious guys trying to spark a crisis just to grab power for themselves. People who hate taxes. Men buried in debt who want a weak government so they can keep dodging their creditors. Citizens paranoid about handing power to a small group of elites. Foreign governments who want America to stay weak and divided.

It’s tough to predict if the Constitution will pass. It probably will.

But the forces fighting against it are strong. If it fails, the resulting chaos and anger will almost certainly spark a civil war. The country will shatter. We might end up split into different regional monarchies or even crawl back to Great Britain under a royal family member.

If it passes, Washington will likely be President. He’ll build a solid administration, earn the public’s trust and stabilize the country.

Over time, this new central government might crush state governments entirely and chop the big states into smaller districts. If that doesn’t happen, the constant turf wars over boundaries and power between the states and the federal government will probably destroy the Union anyway. That’s the most likely long-term result. But human emotions are unpredictable. We’ll know the final verdict on ratification in about eight or nine months.

The Bottom Line Summary: Hamilton’s Political Math

Alexander Hamilton breaks down the street fight over ratifying the Constitution. He lists the heavy hitters backing the deal and aggressively calls out the local politicians fighting it just to protect their own paychecks and power. He predicts a total collapse into civil war if the Constitution fails. He bets on George Washington to hold the country together but warns that the endless turf wars between state and federal power will likely tear the whole country apart eventually.